Friday, March 5, 2010

Oscar Predictions

I haven't been much of a blogger lately, but with the Oscars this Sunday I couldn't let them go by without my (likely incredibly wrong) predictions. With that, here we go. (Excluding races like animated short and documentary feature, since I've seen hardly any of the nominated films.)

Best Picture
Nominees: Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air
Will Win: The Hurt Locker seems destined to become the lowest-grossing Best Picture winner ever. Avatar will win the most awards, but The Hurt Locker will come away with the one that matters. I can't see the Academy going for Avatar, not without screenplay or acting nods.
Should Win: Up. Two months ago, in my "Best of 2009" post, I named Up my favorite flick. So for consistencies sake, I'm sticking with my unpopular choice.

Best Director
Nominees: James Cameron, Avatar; Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker; Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds; Lee Daniels, Precious; Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Will & Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow has swept all the precursor awards and Oscar night should be no different. She created, without question, the year's most intense film.

Best Actor
Nominees: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart; George Clooney, Up in the Air; Colin Firth, A Single Man; Morgan Freeman, Invictus; Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Will Win: Jeff Bridges will take home this year's "Lifetime Achievement Oscar." It doesn't hurt that his boozy performance is pretty dang good.
Should Win: Colin Firth's career-making performance in A Single Man was everything an Oscar-winning performance should be.

Best Actress
Nominees: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side; Helen Mirren, The Last Station; Carey Mulligan, An Education; Gabourey Sidibe, Precious; Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Will Win: "Sandy" Bullock has everything going for her. She has the precursor awards, the "paid her dues" factor, and everyone in Hollywood loves her. Hopefully a win will lead to her making better movies. Oscar winners don't star in All About Steve, Sandra. Take note.
Should Win: Gabourey Sidibe. Two months ago I said Meryl Streep. However, if I were voting I'd go with Gabourey Sidibe and her heart-breaking turn in Precious.

Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Matt Damon, Invictus; Woody Harrelson, The Messenger; Christopher Plummer, The Last Station; Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones; Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Will & Should Win: Christoph Waltz is a virtual lock to take home the golden statue for his deliciously evil portrayal of a fictional Nazi colonel.

Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Penelope Cruz, Nine; Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air; Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart; Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air; Mo'Nique, Precious
Will & Should Win: Mo'Nique's tour-de-force performance in Precious is in a completely different league than the rest of the nominees.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: An Education, In the Loop, District 9, Precious, Up in the Air
Will & Should Win: Up in the Air contained the year's smartest and wittiest dialogue. It should take this in a cakewalk.

Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, The Messenger, A Serious Man, Up
Will Win: Inglourious Basterds. Just how Adapted Screenplay will be Up in the Air's big consolation prize, the Original Screenplay award will likely be runner-up prize for Tarantino's "Holocaust reinterpretation."
Should Win: Up. Again, many will disagree, but I'd give the award to Up for delivering the year's most affecting storytelling.

Best Art Direction
Nominees: Avatar, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, Nine, Sherlock Holmes, The Young Victoria
Will & Should Win: Avatar succeeded largely on artistic vision, so the film should be the frontrunner here.

Best Cinematography
Nominees: Avatar, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, The White Ribbon
Will & Should Win: Avatar was 2009's most beautifully shot film. Again, it should win this one fairly easily.

Best Costume Design
Nominees: Bright Star, Coco Before Chanel, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, Nine, The Young Victoria
Will & Should Win: The Young Victoria. The Academy loves a period piece, and the costumes in The Young Victoria were impeccably "Victorian."

Best Film Editing
Nominees: Avatar, District 9, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious
Will Win: The Hurt Locker. Kathryn's Bigelow's film is highly-regarded in many circles, and that love should carry over into an editing win.
Should Win: Avatar. Before nominations, I would've gone with Up in the Air, but it stunningly was left off the list. However, he final action scene in Avatar is reason enough to bestow James Cameron's epic with Best Editing.

Best Makeup
Nominees: Il Divo, Star Trek, The Young Victoria
Will & Should Win: Star Trek. The film with the truly the best makeup job (District 9) isn't even nominated, so Star Trek wins by default. It did have a green woman...

Best Original Score
Nominees: Avatar, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Hurt Locker, Sherlock Holmes, Up
Will & Should Win: Up. Nearly the first ten minutes of Up contain no dialogue. Michael Giacchino's score should receive the award for carrying the film that long, not to mention they're the most moving ten minutes of the entire picture.

Best Original Song
Nominees: "The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart; "Almost There," Princess and the Frog; "Down in New Orleans," Princess and the Frog, "Take it All ," Nine; "Loin de Paname," Paris 36
Will & Should Win: "The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart. No song was more integral or more powerfully used in a storyline than "The Weary Kind" in Crazy Heart.

Best Sound Editing
Nominees: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Star Trek, Up
Will Win: Avatar. When you spend $500 million on a film, there's a reason it will sweep the majority of the Oscar tech awards.
Should Win: Star Trek. The use of sound in Star Trek blew me away, but it's being overshadowed by the "Biggest Film of All Time."

Best Sound Mixing
Nominees: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Star Trek, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Will Win: Avatar. See above.
Should Win: Star Trek. Again, see above.

Visual Effects
Nominees: Avatar, District 9, Star Trek
Will & Should Win: Avatar. Easiest prediction by far.

Animated Feature Film
Nominees: Coraline, Fantastic Mr. Fox, Princess & the Frog, The Secret of Kells, Up
Will & Should Win: Up. It's nominated for Best Picture, and it's my favorite picture (regardless of medium) for the entire year, so it's is the easy choice.

Predicted Awards Tally: Avatar - 6 , The Hurt Locker - 3 , Crazy Heart - 2, Inglourious Basterds - 2, Up - 2, Precious - 1, Star Trek - 1, Up in the Air - 1, The Young Victoria - 1