If I Were an Academy: 5th Edition

Hello Blogosphere, long time no talk I'm back, for real this time. No really, I promise. Well, maybe. (Indecisive much?) I loved my 10-month review adventure back in 2009, and I miss putting my thoughts into cyberspace. But reviews aren't enough. There are many other people out there "reviewing" and doing it much better than I (read: they're funny, and I'm not so much). I need my own Julie/Julia Project -- and that's not because I want Amy Adams to play me in romantic comedy. I just need inspiration. Julia Child, where are you?

So while I figure out the direction of my tiny, tiny blog, I'll leave you with my Oscar predictions and opinions. My longest-running (and favorite) "blog theme."

Best Picture
When I started my own "awards in 2007 my Best Picture picks varied widely with the Academy's, but now that they've expanded to ten my choices have become far less interesting. Christopher Nolan's Inception was my favorite film of the year. The score, direction, visual effects, and performances were all dreamlike. It's a film that will redefine the summer blockbuster. However, I will go away disappointed when Steven Spielberg announces The King's Speech as winner. It's not a bad film. It's just not as superb as much of 2010's cinema.

Nominees: Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The Kings Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, and Winter's Bone
Will Win: The King's Speech
Should Win: Inception
Jason's Top Ten (in order of adoration): Inception, The Kids Are All Right, Toy Story 3, The Fighter, 127 Hours, The Social Network, Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine, Shutter Island, and True Grit

Direction
I'm a firm believer that you should win Best Picture without winning Best Director, so that makes this category easy. Inception was my favorite film, and Christopher Nolan wasn't nominated so that rules out my first choice. According to my Top Ten list David O' Russell is best here. Tom Hooper should (undeservedly) win this though in a King's Speech sweep.
Nominees: Black Swan Darren Aronofsky, The Fighter David O. Russell, The King's Speech, Tom Hooper, The Social Network David Fincher, True Grit Joel Coen and Ethan Coen Who Will Will Win: Tom Hooper for The King's Speech
Who Should Win and Who Should've Been Nominated: Christopher Nolan for Inception

Best Actor
For the first time in a long time this category is weaker than the Best Actress category. Any one of the Best Actress nominees could beat out any one of these men for Best Performance of 2010.
If I were voting, James Franco would top my ballot. His tour-de-force performance in 127 Hours was impeccable. Few actors could have infused such vitality and vibrancy into such a stationary role. But again, Oscar voters won't agree. They'll much up for last year's mistake of not giving Colin Firth the trophy for A Single Man and award him this year for his stuttering, lovable King.

Nominees: Javier Bardem in Biutiful, Jeff Bridges in True Grit, Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network, Colin Firth in The King's Speech, James Franco in 127 Hours
Will Win: Colin Firth
Should Win: James Franco
Should've Been Nominated: Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine and Aaron Eckhart in Rabbit Hole (in place of Bardem and Bridges)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
This is one of the easiest categories to call this year. Game, set, match for Batman. Christian Bale will walk home with his first (very much deserved) Oscar. It's just a shame that this is also his first nomination.

Nominees: Christian Bale in The Fighter, John Hawkes in Winter's Bone, Jeremy Renner in The Town, Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right, Geoffrey Rush in The King's Speech
Who Will & Should Win: Christian Bale
Who Should've Been Nominated: Andrew Garfield in The Social Network and Miles Teller in Rabbit Hole (in place of Renner and Rush)

Actress in a Leading Role
My favorite Best Actress performance isn't even nominated. Julianne Moore was brilliant in The Kids Are All Right - navigating a role that would've overcome most actresses. However, this slate is pretty stellar. Given the strength of all the nominees is baffles me how Natalie Portman how won every precursor award -- she's nowhere near leagues better than everyone else, but she'll walk away with the Oscar anyway.
Nominees: Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right, Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole, Jennifer Lawrence in Winter's Bone, Natalie Portman in Black Swan, Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine
Who Will Win: Natalie Portman
Who Should Win: Nicole Kidman
Who Should've Been Nominated: Julianne Moore (!!!!) in The Kids Are All Right (in place of Lawrence)

Actress in a Supporting Role
Yet another category where my favorite isn't nominated (Marion Cotillard in Inception), but this is easily the night's most competitive category and the most likely to have a surprise winner. Melissa Leo is the popular choice as she was darn good in The Fighter, but if I were voting I'd choose her co-star Amy Adams. Adams' performance is just as, if not more, memorable than Leo's, and while Leo's role was written t0 be flashy Adams wins you over with her nuance. I'm not predicting either to win though. I'm predicting Hailee Steinfeld, the True Grit youngster, to surprise all the cinema veterans.

Nominees: Amy Adams in The Fighter, Helena Bonham Carter in The King's Speech, Melissa Leo in The Fighter, Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit, Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom
Who Will Win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Who Should Win: Amy Adams, The Fighter
Who Should've Been Nominated: Blake Lively in The Town and Marion Cotillard in Inception (in place of Bonham Carter and Steinfeld)

Adapted Screenplay
The Social Network takes this in a cake walk. There's not much else to say.
Nominees: 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone
Who Will & Should Win: The Social Network
Who Should've Been Nominated: Rabbit Hole and Shutter Island (in place of True Grit and Winter's Bone)

Original Screenplay
Oscar night will be a King's Speech sweep, as mentioned, so it should take this easily. However, it's stiffest competition will likely come from the deserving winner - The Kids Are All Right, a film the succeeded because of its simplicity.
Nominees: Another Year, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech
Will Win: The King's Speech
Should Win: The Kids Are All Right
Should've Been Nominated: Blue Valentine (in place of Another Year)

The rest (sans analysis)....

Animated Feature Film
Nominees: How to Train Your Dragon, The Illusionist, Toy Story 3
Who Will & Should Win: Toy Story 3
Should've Been Nominated: Despicable Me (in place of The Illusionist)

Art Direction
Nominees: Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1, Inception, The King's Speech, True Grit
Will Win: The King's Speech
Should Win: Inception
Should've Been Nominated: Shutter Island

Cinematograpy
Nominees: Black Swan, Inception, The King's Speech, The Social Network, True Grit
Will Win: True Grit
Should Win: Inception
Should've Been Nominated: Blue Valentine

Costume Design
Nominees: Alice in Wonderland, I am Love, The King's Speech, The Tempest, True Grit
Who Will Win: The King's Speech
Who Should Win: Alice in Wonderland
Who Should've Been Nominated: Tron Legacy

Documentary Feature
Nominees: Exit through the Gift Shop, Gasland, Inside Job, Restrepo, Waste Land
Will Win: Exit through the Gift Shop
Should Win: Waiting for Superman. Oh wait...
Should've Been Nominated: The aforementioned Superman and The Tillman Story

Documentary Short Subject
Nominees: Killing in the Name, Poster Girl, Strangers No More, Sun Come Up, The Warriors of Qiugang
Will Win: The Warriors of Qiugang

Editing
Nominees: Black Swan, The Fighter, The King's Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network
Will Win: The King's Speech
Should Win: 127 Hours
Should've Been Nominated: Inception

Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Biutiful, Dogtooth, In a Better World, Incendies, Outside the Law
Will Win: Biutiful

Makeup
Nominees: Barney's Version, The Way Back, The Wolfman
Who Will Win: The Wolfman
Should've Been Nominated: The Fighter

Original Score
Nominees: How to Train Your Dragon, Inception, The King's Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network
Will Win: The Social Network
Who Should Win: Inception
Who Should've Been Nominated: Tron: Legacy

Original Song
Nominees: "Coming Home" from Country Strong, "I See the Light" from Tangled, "If I Rise" from 127 Hours, "We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3
Will Win: "If I Rise"
Should Win: "I See the Light"
Should've Been Nominated: "When Will My Life Begin" from Tangled

Animated Short Film
Nominees: Day & Night, The Gruffalo, Let's Pollute, The Lost Thing, Madagascar, carnet de voyage
Will Win: Day & Night

Live Action Short Film
Nominees: The Confession, The Crush, God of Love, Na Wewe, Wish 143
Will Win: God of Love

Sound Editing
Nominees: Inception, Toy Story 3, Tron: Legacy, True Grit, Unstoppable
Will and Should Win: Inception
Should've Been Nominated: How to Train Your Dragon

Sound Mixing
Nominees: Inception, The King's Speech, Salt, The Social Network, True Grit
Who Will Win: The Social Network
Who Should Win: Inception

Visual Effects
Nominees: Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1, Hereafter, Inception, Iron Man 2
Will & Should Win: Inception
Should've Been Nominated: TRON: Legacy

Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone
Who Will & Should Win: The Social Network
Who Should've Been Nominated: Rabbit Hole and Shutter Island

Original Screenplay
Nominees: Another Year, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech
Will Win: The King's Speech
Should Win: The Kids Are All Right
Should've Been Nominated: Blue Valentine

Nomination Count (not including Foreign Language, Doc and Short categories):
The King's Speech - 7 statues
The Social Network - 3 statues
Inception - 2 statues
True Grit - 2 statues
127 Hours - 1 statue
Black Swan - 1 statue
The Fighter - 1 statue
Toy Story 3 - 1 statue
The Wolfman - 1 statue