The Oscars are my "thing." Call me crazy, but nomination day is like Christmas for me, I look forward to the annual ceremony more than the Super Bowl, and I still dream of working for "The Academy."So it should come to no surprise that I am back for my sixth annual (!) "If I Were an Academy" post. This year was an interesting year in film. I enjoyed many films. There were more than 20 films during 2011 that were competing for spots on my Top 10 list. However, I am wasn't deeply passionate about any. There wasn't a Dark Knight, Slumdog Millionaire, or even Crash. (Yes, I still love Crash, so take that haters!) That's what makes this year of predicting so interesting -- I'm not sure if my lack of enthusiasm will help or hurt my ability to pick the correct winners. But with that, here are my 2012 Oscar predictions. Until next year...
Main Predictions
Best Picture
This year's best picture race is the most boring since... well, last year when The King's Speech took the big prize. However, unlike last year, The Artist is actually a pretty good movie. It's unique, clever, and a solid example of excellent film making. I have no problem with the film winning, but it's just not the most exciting choice. As it goes with the Oscars every year, my favorite films (and what I would argue are the best films of the year) generally got shut out. 50/50 was the most egregious snub. It was the most realistic, smart, and heartfelt yet funny film of the year. Though, with the nine nominees selected, if I were voting, I'd punch my ticket for Moneyball. Aaron Sorkin turned in another fabulous script, following The Social Network last year, and Brad Pitt gives a career-best performance in one of the best sports films of all-time.
Nominees: The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, Midnight In Paris, Hugo, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, Moneyball, War Horse, The Tree Of Life
Will Win: The Artist
Should Win: Moneyball
Should've Been Nominated/Jason's Top 10 of 2011: 1. 50/50, 2. Harry Potter, 3. Moneyball, 4. Drive, 5. Contagion, 6. Talk Shelter, 7. Win Win, 8. Hugo, 9. Bridesmaids, 10. Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Best Director
Nominees: Martin Scorsese, Hugo, Woody Allen, Midnight In Paris, Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist, Alexander Payne, The Descendants, Terrence Malick, The Tree Of Life
Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist. Even though The Artist had its problems, there is no denying Hazanavicius' touch on the film. Without him, its likely The Artist would not have been able to pull off what it did.
Should Win: Martin Scorsese, Hugo. If the Academy gives Hazanavicius an Oscar based on his out-of-the-box vision - they really should be handing this to the legendary Scorsese. Hugo was a marvel, and Scorsese utilized 3D unlike anyone has yet - actually to the benefit of the film.
Should've Been Nominated: Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive
Best Actor
Nominees: George Clooney, The Descendants, Brad Pitt, Moneyball, Jean Dujardin, The Artist, Demian Bichir, A Better Life, Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Will Win: Jean Dujardin, The Artist. I'm predicting mostly an Artist sweep in the major categories, and Dujardin should ride that wave.
Should Win: Brad Pitt, Moneyball. Like I said, Pitt has aged like a fine wine, and gives a brilliant performance.
Should've Been Nominated: Ryan Gosling, Drive. I don't know what the Academy's problem is with Gosling, but by my count he should have four career nominations by now, but yet he only has one under his belt for Half Nelson.
Best Actress
Nominees: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady, Viola Davis, The Help, Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn, Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs, Rooney Mara, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Will & Should Win: Viola Davis, The Help. Of this year's Best Picture nominees, The Help is the best acted, and Viola Davis leads the way. She carried the film in a way that no other actress could. Hopefully her win tomorrow lands her more of the roles that she deserves.
Should've Been Nominated: Charlize Theron, Young Adult. The film was unfocused and unrealistic, but Charlize owned the picture. If she can get nominated for North Country, it is embarrassing that she couldn't do the same for Young Adult.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Christopher Plummer, Beginners, Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn, Jonah Hill, Moneyball, Nick Nolte, Warrior, Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Who Will Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners. I'm embarrassed to admit, I haven't seen Beginners yet. However, Plummer has landed all the precursors, and if he lost, it'd be the biggest upset of the night.
Who Should Win: Jonah Hill, Moneyball. I was happy to see him land here on nomination day. Mostly known as a comedian, he tones it down and hits it out of the park.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Octavia Spencer, The Help, Jessica Chastain, The Help, Berenice Bejo, The Artist, Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids, Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Who Will Win: Octavia Spencer, The Help. Like Plummer, she has this in the bag. If anyone else wins it would be a stunner.
Who Should Win: Jessica Chastain, The Help. Anyone who watched "Ugly Betty" knew of Spencer's talents. However, 2012 was Chastain's year, and she took what could've been a one-note character and stole the show.
Who Should've Been Nominated: Jessica Chastain, Take Shelter. If Chastain wins tomorrow, she's winning for the wrong movie. Her portrayal of a faithful and struggling wife in Take Shelter is a master class. Between her roles in The Help, Take Shelter, and The Debt in 2011, Chastain has quickly become one of my favorite actresses.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: Michel Hazanivicius, The Artist, Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumulo, Bridesmaids, Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris, J.C. Chandor, Margin Call, Asghar Farhadi, A Separation
Will Win: Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris. The film was the surprise hit of the summer (in addition to Bridesmaids) and will be rewarded here. However, no win will upset me more than an Oscar for Midnight in Paris. It was a snoozer and was in desperate need of some whimsy.
Should Win: Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumulo, Bridesmaids. The summer's first surprise was definitely its best.
Should've Been Nominated: Will Reiser, 50/50. It was my favorite film of the year mainly because it was so brilliantly written.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash, The Descendants, John Logan, Hugo,
George Clooney, Beau Willimon and Grant Heslov, The Ides of March, Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin and Stan Chervin, Moneyball, Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Will Win: The guys from The Descendants. There's a contingent of the Academy that's bound to be in love with this film, so they'll want to award it something. If it doesn't win here keep your eye out for a George Clooney win in Best Actor.
Should Win: The guys from Moneyball. Mainly because Aaron Sorkin is a genius with words.
Should've Been Nominated: Steve Zaillian, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. He did an excellent job making changes to the story that actually made it better than the book.
Tech & Craft Predictions (sans analysis... mostly)
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: A Cat in Paris, Chico & Rita, Kung Fu Panda 2, Puss in Boots, Rango
Will Win: Rango. This is deserving if you like watching films featuring a lizard, voiced by Johnny Depp, on some sort of acid trip.
Should Win: Kung Fu Panda 2. It improved on the already-good original. In such a weak animation year, that should be enough to win you an Oscar.
Should've Been Nominated: Um. Nothing.
Best Art Direction
Nominees: The Artist, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, War Horse
Will & Should Win: Hugo. No contest.
Should've Been Nominated: This list looks right to me.
Best Cinematography
Nominees: The Artist, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, The Tree of Life, War Horse
Will Win: The Tree of Life
Should Win: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Should've Been Nominated: Newton Thomas Sigel, Drive
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Bullhead, Footnote, In Darkness, Monsier Lazhar, A Separation
Will Win: A Separation
Should Win & Should've Been Nominated: I didn't see any of them... so yeah...
Best Sound Mixing
Nominees: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Moneyball, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, War Horse
Will Win: Hugo
Should Win: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Should've Been Nominated: I'm not even going to pretend to know.
Best Sound Editing
Nominees: Drive, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, War Horse
Will & Should Win: War Horse
Should've Been Nominated: See above
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees: Hell and Back Again, If A Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front, Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory, Pina, Undefeated
Will Win: Paradise Lost 3
Should Win & Should've Been Nominated: Being Elmo
Best Visual Effects
Nominees: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Hugo, Real Steel, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Will & Should Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Should've Been Nominated: None
Best Film Editing
Nominees: Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist, Kevin Tent, The Descendants, Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Thelma Schoonmaker, Hugo, Christopher Tellefsen, Moneyball
Will Win: The Artist
Should Win: Hugo
Should've Been Nominated: Harry Potter
Best Original Score
Nominees: John Williams, The Adventures of Tintin, Ludovic Bource, The Artist, Howard Shore, Hugo, Alberto Iglesias, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, John Williams, War Horse
Will Win: The Artist
Should Win: The Artist
Should've Been Nominated: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Best Costume Design
Nominees: Anonymous, The Artist, Hugo, Jane Eyre, W.E.
Will & Should Win: The Artist
Should've Been Nominated: Harry Potter
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Man or Muppet” from The Muppets, Bret McKenzie, “Real in Rio” from Rio, Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown and Siedah Garrett
Will & Should Win: THE MUPPETS!
Should've Been Nominated: EVERY OTHER SONG FROM THE MUPPETS!
Best Makeup
Nominees: Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston and Matthew W. Mungle, Albert Nobbs, Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland, The Iron Lady
Will Win: Iron Lady
Should Win: Harry Potter just because it's Harry Potter
Should've Been Nominated: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
The rest of the categories I have no clue about:
Best Animated Short
Nominees: Dimanche/Sunday, The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore, La Luna, A Morning Stroll, Wild Life
Will Win: Flying Books
Best Live Action Short
Nominees: Pentecost, Raju, The Shore, Time Freak, Tuba Atlantic
Will Win: Tuba
Best Documentary Short
Nominees: The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement, God Is the Bigger Elvis, Incident in New Baghdad, Saving Face, The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom Will Win: Saving Face
Overall Winners Count
The Artist - 6
The Help - 2
Hugo - 2
Beginners - 1
Midnight in Paris - 1
The Descendants - 1
Rango - 1
Tree of Life - 1
A Separation - 1
War Horse - 1
Rise of the Planet of the Apes - 1
Paradise Lost 3 - 1
The Muppets - 1
Iron Lady - 1
Saving Face - 1
Tuba - 1
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore - 1
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