If I Were an Academy: 2012 Edition

The Oscars are my "thing." Call me crazy, but nomination day is like Christmas for me, I look forward to the annual ceremony more than the Super Bowl, and I still dream of working for "The Academy."So it should come to no surprise that I am back for my sixth annual (!) "If I Were an Academy" post. This year was an interesting year in film. I enjoyed many films. There were more than 20 films during 2011 that were competing for spots on my Top 10 list. However, I am wasn't deeply passionate about any. There wasn't a Dark Knight, Slumdog Millionaire, or even Crash. (Yes, I still love Crash, so take that haters!) That's what makes this year of predicting so interesting -- I'm not sure if my lack of enthusiasm will help or hurt my ability to pick the correct winners. But with that, here are my 2012 Oscar predictions. Until next year...

Main Predictions
Best Picture
This year's best picture race is the most boring since... well, last year when The King's Speech took the big prize. However, unlike last year, The Artist is actually a pretty good movie. It's unique, clever, and a solid example of excellent film making. I have no problem with the film winning, but it's just not the most exciting choice. As it goes with the Oscars every year, my favorite films (and what I would argue are the best films of the year) generally got shut out. 50/50 was the most egregious snub. It was the most realistic, smart, and heartfelt yet funny film of the year. Though, with the nine nominees selected, if I were voting, I'd punch my ticket for Moneyball. Aaron Sorkin turned in another fabulous script, following The Social Network last year, and Brad Pitt gives a career-best performance in one of the best sports films of all-time.

Nominees: The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, Midnight In Paris, Hugo, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, Moneyball, War Horse, The Tree Of Life
Will Win: The Artist
Should Win: Moneyball
Should've Been Nominated/Jason's Top 10 of 2011: 1. 50/50, 2. Harry Potter, 3. Moneyball, 4. Drive, 5. Contagion, 6. Talk Shelter, 7. Win Win, 8. Hugo, 9. Bridesmaids, 10. Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Best Director
Nominees: Martin Scorsese, Hugo, Woody Allen, Midnight In Paris, Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist, Alexander Payne, The Descendants, Terrence Malick, The Tree Of Life
Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist. Even though The Artist had its problems, there is no denying Hazanavicius' touch on the film. Without him, its likely The Artist would not have been able to pull off what it did.
Should Win: Martin Scorsese, Hugo. If the Academy gives Hazanavicius an Oscar based on his out-of-the-box vision - they really should be handing this to the legendary Scorsese. Hugo was a marvel, and Scorsese utilized 3D unlike anyone has yet - actually to the benefit of the film.
Should've Been Nominated: Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive

Best Actor
Nominees: George Clooney, The Descendants, Brad Pitt, Moneyball, Jean Dujardin, The Artist, Demian Bichir, A Better Life, Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Will Win: Jean Dujardin, The Artist. I'm predicting mostly an Artist sweep in the major categories, and Dujardin should ride that wave.
Should Win: Brad Pitt, Moneyball. Like I said, Pitt has aged like a fine wine, and gives a brilliant performance.
Should've Been Nominated: Ryan Gosling, Drive. I don't know what the Academy's problem is with Gosling, but by my count he should have four career nominations by now, but yet he only has one under his belt for Half Nelson.

Best Actress
Nominees: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady, Viola Davis, The Help, Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn, Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs, Rooney Mara, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Will & Should Win: Viola Davis, The Help. Of this year's Best Picture nominees, The Help is the best acted, and Viola Davis leads the way. She carried the film in a way that no other actress could. Hopefully her win tomorrow lands her more of the roles that she deserves.
Should've Been Nominated: Charlize Theron, Young Adult. The film was unfocused and unrealistic, but Charlize owned the picture. If she can get nominated for North Country, it is embarrassing that she couldn't do the same for Young Adult.

Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Christopher Plummer, Beginners, Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn, Jonah Hill, Moneyball, Nick Nolte, Warrior, Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Who Will Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners. I'm embarrassed to admit, I haven't seen Beginners yet. However, Plummer has landed all the precursors, and if he lost, it'd be the biggest upset of the night.
Who Should Win: Jonah Hill, Moneyball. I was happy to see him land here on nomination day. Mostly known as a comedian, he tones it down and hits it out of the park.

Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Octavia Spencer, The Help, Jessica Chastain, The Help, Berenice Bejo, The Artist, Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids, Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Who Will Win: Octavia Spencer, The Help. Like Plummer, she has this in the bag. If anyone else wins it would be a stunner.
Who Should Win: Jessica Chastain, The Help. Anyone who watched "Ugly Betty" knew of Spencer's talents. However, 2012 was Chastain's year, and she took what could've been a one-note character and stole the show.
Who Should've Been Nominated: Jessica Chastain, Take Shelter. If Chastain wins tomorrow, she's winning for the wrong movie. Her portrayal of a faithful and struggling wife in Take Shelter is a master class. Between her roles in The Help, Take Shelter, and The Debt in 2011, Chastain has quickly become one of my favorite actresses.

Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: Michel Hazanivicius, The Artist, Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumulo, Bridesmaids, Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris, J.C. Chandor, Margin Call, Asghar Farhadi, A Separation
Will Win: Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris. The film was the surprise hit of the summer (in addition to Bridesmaids) and will be rewarded here. However, no win will upset me more than an Oscar for Midnight in Paris. It was a snoozer and was in desperate need of some whimsy.
Should Win: Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumulo, Bridesmaids. The summer's first surprise was definitely its best.
Should've Been Nominated: Will Reiser, 50/50. It was my favorite film of the year mainly because it was so brilliantly written.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash, The Descendants, John Logan, Hugo,
George Clooney, Beau Willimon and Grant Heslov, The Ides of March, Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin and Stan Chervin, Moneyball, Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Will Win: The guys from The Descendants. There's a contingent of the Academy that's bound to be in love with this film, so they'll want to award it something. If it doesn't win here keep your eye out for a George Clooney win in Best Actor.
Should Win: The guys from Moneyball. Mainly because Aaron Sorkin is a genius with words.
Should've Been Nominated: Steve Zaillian, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. He did an excellent job making changes to the story that actually made it better than the book.

Tech & Craft Predictions (sans analysis... mostly)
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: A Cat in Paris, Chico & Rita, Kung Fu Panda 2, Puss in Boots, Rango
Will Win: Rango. This is deserving if you like watching films featuring a lizard, voiced by Johnny Depp, on some sort of acid trip.
Should Win: Kung Fu Panda 2. It improved on the already-good original. In such a weak animation year, that should be enough to win you an Oscar.
Should've Been Nominated: Um. Nothing.

Best Art Direction
Nominees: The Artist, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, War Horse
Will & Should Win: Hugo. No contest.
Should've Been Nominated: This list looks right to me.

Best Cinematography
Nominees: The Artist, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, The Tree of Life, War Horse
Will Win: The Tree of Life
Should Win: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Should've Been Nominated: Newton Thomas Sigel, Drive

Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Bullhead, Footnote, In Darkness, Monsier Lazhar, A Separation
Will Win: A Separation
Should Win & Should've Been Nominated: I didn't see any of them... so yeah...

Best Sound Mixing
Nominees: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Moneyball, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, War Horse
Will Win: Hugo
Should Win: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Should've Been Nominated: I'm not even going to pretend to know.

Best Sound Editing
Nominees: Drive, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, War Horse
Will & Should Win: War Horse
Should've Been Nominated: See above

Best Documentary Feature
Nominees: Hell and Back Again, If A Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front, Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory, Pina, Undefeated
Will Win: Paradise Lost 3
Should Win & Should've Been Nominated: Being Elmo

Best Visual Effects
Nominees: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Hugo, Real Steel, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Will & Should Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Should've Been Nominated: None

Best Film Editing
Nominees: Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist, Kevin Tent, The Descendants, Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Thelma Schoonmaker, Hugo, Christopher Tellefsen, Moneyball
Will Win: The Artist
Should Win: Hugo
Should've Been Nominated: Harry Potter

Best Original Score
Nominees: John Williams, The Adventures of Tintin, Ludovic Bource, The Artist, Howard Shore, Hugo, Alberto Iglesias, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, John Williams, War Horse
Will Win: The Artist
Should Win: The Artist
Should've Been Nominated: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Best Costume Design
Nominees: Anonymous, The Artist, Hugo, Jane Eyre, W.E.
Will & Should Win: The Artist
Should've Been Nominated: Harry Potter

Best Original Song
Nominees: “Man or Muppet” from The Muppets, Bret McKenzie, “Real in Rio” from Rio, Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown and Siedah Garrett
Will & Should Win: THE MUPPETS!
Should've Been Nominated: EVERY OTHER SONG FROM THE MUPPETS!

Best Makeup
Nominees: Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston and Matthew W. Mungle, Albert Nobbs, Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland, The Iron Lady
Will Win: Iron Lady
Should Win: Harry Potter just because it's Harry Potter
Should've Been Nominated: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

The rest of the categories I have no clue about:
Best Animated Short
Nominees: Dimanche/Sunday, The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore, La Luna, A Morning Stroll, Wild Life
Will Win: Flying Books

Best Live Action Short
Nominees: Pentecost, Raju, The Shore, Time Freak, Tuba Atlantic
Will Win: Tuba

Best Documentary Short
Nominees: The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement, God Is the Bigger Elvis, Incident in New Baghdad, Saving Face, The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom Will Win: Saving Face

Overall Winners Count
The Artist - 6
The Help - 2
Hugo - 2
Beginners - 1
Midnight in Paris - 1
The Descendants - 1
Rango - 1
Tree of Life - 1
A Separation - 1
War Horse - 1
Rise of the Planet of the Apes - 1
Paradise Lost 3 - 1
The Muppets - 1
Iron Lady - 1
Saving Face - 1
Tuba - 1
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore - 1

If I Were an Academy: 5th Edition

Hello Blogosphere, long time no talk I'm back, for real this time. No really, I promise. Well, maybe. (Indecisive much?) I loved my 10-month review adventure back in 2009, and I miss putting my thoughts into cyberspace. But reviews aren't enough. There are many other people out there "reviewing" and doing it much better than I (read: they're funny, and I'm not so much). I need my own Julie/Julia Project -- and that's not because I want Amy Adams to play me in romantic comedy. I just need inspiration. Julia Child, where are you?

So while I figure out the direction of my tiny, tiny blog, I'll leave you with my Oscar predictions and opinions. My longest-running (and favorite) "blog theme."

Best Picture
When I started my own "awards in 2007 my Best Picture picks varied widely with the Academy's, but now that they've expanded to ten my choices have become far less interesting. Christopher Nolan's Inception was my favorite film of the year. The score, direction, visual effects, and performances were all dreamlike. It's a film that will redefine the summer blockbuster. However, I will go away disappointed when Steven Spielberg announces The King's Speech as winner. It's not a bad film. It's just not as superb as much of 2010's cinema.

Nominees: Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The Kings Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, and Winter's Bone
Will Win: The King's Speech
Should Win: Inception
Jason's Top Ten (in order of adoration): Inception, The Kids Are All Right, Toy Story 3, The Fighter, 127 Hours, The Social Network, Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine, Shutter Island, and True Grit

Direction
I'm a firm believer that you should win Best Picture without winning Best Director, so that makes this category easy. Inception was my favorite film, and Christopher Nolan wasn't nominated so that rules out my first choice. According to my Top Ten list David O' Russell is best here. Tom Hooper should (undeservedly) win this though in a King's Speech sweep.
Nominees: Black Swan Darren Aronofsky, The Fighter David O. Russell, The King's Speech, Tom Hooper, The Social Network David Fincher, True Grit Joel Coen and Ethan Coen Who Will Will Win: Tom Hooper for The King's Speech
Who Should Win and Who Should've Been Nominated: Christopher Nolan for Inception

Best Actor
For the first time in a long time this category is weaker than the Best Actress category. Any one of the Best Actress nominees could beat out any one of these men for Best Performance of 2010.
If I were voting, James Franco would top my ballot. His tour-de-force performance in 127 Hours was impeccable. Few actors could have infused such vitality and vibrancy into such a stationary role. But again, Oscar voters won't agree. They'll much up for last year's mistake of not giving Colin Firth the trophy for A Single Man and award him this year for his stuttering, lovable King.

Nominees: Javier Bardem in Biutiful, Jeff Bridges in True Grit, Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network, Colin Firth in The King's Speech, James Franco in 127 Hours
Will Win: Colin Firth
Should Win: James Franco
Should've Been Nominated: Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine and Aaron Eckhart in Rabbit Hole (in place of Bardem and Bridges)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
This is one of the easiest categories to call this year. Game, set, match for Batman. Christian Bale will walk home with his first (very much deserved) Oscar. It's just a shame that this is also his first nomination.

Nominees: Christian Bale in The Fighter, John Hawkes in Winter's Bone, Jeremy Renner in The Town, Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right, Geoffrey Rush in The King's Speech
Who Will & Should Win: Christian Bale
Who Should've Been Nominated: Andrew Garfield in The Social Network and Miles Teller in Rabbit Hole (in place of Renner and Rush)

Actress in a Leading Role
My favorite Best Actress performance isn't even nominated. Julianne Moore was brilliant in The Kids Are All Right - navigating a role that would've overcome most actresses. However, this slate is pretty stellar. Given the strength of all the nominees is baffles me how Natalie Portman how won every precursor award -- she's nowhere near leagues better than everyone else, but she'll walk away with the Oscar anyway.
Nominees: Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right, Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole, Jennifer Lawrence in Winter's Bone, Natalie Portman in Black Swan, Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine
Who Will Win: Natalie Portman
Who Should Win: Nicole Kidman
Who Should've Been Nominated: Julianne Moore (!!!!) in The Kids Are All Right (in place of Lawrence)

Actress in a Supporting Role
Yet another category where my favorite isn't nominated (Marion Cotillard in Inception), but this is easily the night's most competitive category and the most likely to have a surprise winner. Melissa Leo is the popular choice as she was darn good in The Fighter, but if I were voting I'd choose her co-star Amy Adams. Adams' performance is just as, if not more, memorable than Leo's, and while Leo's role was written t0 be flashy Adams wins you over with her nuance. I'm not predicting either to win though. I'm predicting Hailee Steinfeld, the True Grit youngster, to surprise all the cinema veterans.

Nominees: Amy Adams in The Fighter, Helena Bonham Carter in The King's Speech, Melissa Leo in The Fighter, Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit, Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom
Who Will Win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Who Should Win: Amy Adams, The Fighter
Who Should've Been Nominated: Blake Lively in The Town and Marion Cotillard in Inception (in place of Bonham Carter and Steinfeld)

Adapted Screenplay
The Social Network takes this in a cake walk. There's not much else to say.
Nominees: 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone
Who Will & Should Win: The Social Network
Who Should've Been Nominated: Rabbit Hole and Shutter Island (in place of True Grit and Winter's Bone)

Original Screenplay
Oscar night will be a King's Speech sweep, as mentioned, so it should take this easily. However, it's stiffest competition will likely come from the deserving winner - The Kids Are All Right, a film the succeeded because of its simplicity.
Nominees: Another Year, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech
Will Win: The King's Speech
Should Win: The Kids Are All Right
Should've Been Nominated: Blue Valentine (in place of Another Year)

The rest (sans analysis)....

Animated Feature Film
Nominees: How to Train Your Dragon, The Illusionist, Toy Story 3
Who Will & Should Win: Toy Story 3
Should've Been Nominated: Despicable Me (in place of The Illusionist)

Art Direction
Nominees: Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1, Inception, The King's Speech, True Grit
Will Win: The King's Speech
Should Win: Inception
Should've Been Nominated: Shutter Island

Cinematograpy
Nominees: Black Swan, Inception, The King's Speech, The Social Network, True Grit
Will Win: True Grit
Should Win: Inception
Should've Been Nominated: Blue Valentine

Costume Design
Nominees: Alice in Wonderland, I am Love, The King's Speech, The Tempest, True Grit
Who Will Win: The King's Speech
Who Should Win: Alice in Wonderland
Who Should've Been Nominated: Tron Legacy

Documentary Feature
Nominees: Exit through the Gift Shop, Gasland, Inside Job, Restrepo, Waste Land
Will Win: Exit through the Gift Shop
Should Win: Waiting for Superman. Oh wait...
Should've Been Nominated: The aforementioned Superman and The Tillman Story

Documentary Short Subject
Nominees: Killing in the Name, Poster Girl, Strangers No More, Sun Come Up, The Warriors of Qiugang
Will Win: The Warriors of Qiugang

Editing
Nominees: Black Swan, The Fighter, The King's Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network
Will Win: The King's Speech
Should Win: 127 Hours
Should've Been Nominated: Inception

Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Biutiful, Dogtooth, In a Better World, Incendies, Outside the Law
Will Win: Biutiful

Makeup
Nominees: Barney's Version, The Way Back, The Wolfman
Who Will Win: The Wolfman
Should've Been Nominated: The Fighter

Original Score
Nominees: How to Train Your Dragon, Inception, The King's Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network
Will Win: The Social Network
Who Should Win: Inception
Who Should've Been Nominated: Tron: Legacy

Original Song
Nominees: "Coming Home" from Country Strong, "I See the Light" from Tangled, "If I Rise" from 127 Hours, "We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3
Will Win: "If I Rise"
Should Win: "I See the Light"
Should've Been Nominated: "When Will My Life Begin" from Tangled

Animated Short Film
Nominees: Day & Night, The Gruffalo, Let's Pollute, The Lost Thing, Madagascar, carnet de voyage
Will Win: Day & Night

Live Action Short Film
Nominees: The Confession, The Crush, God of Love, Na Wewe, Wish 143
Will Win: God of Love

Sound Editing
Nominees: Inception, Toy Story 3, Tron: Legacy, True Grit, Unstoppable
Will and Should Win: Inception
Should've Been Nominated: How to Train Your Dragon

Sound Mixing
Nominees: Inception, The King's Speech, Salt, The Social Network, True Grit
Who Will Win: The Social Network
Who Should Win: Inception

Visual Effects
Nominees: Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1, Hereafter, Inception, Iron Man 2
Will & Should Win: Inception
Should've Been Nominated: TRON: Legacy

Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone
Who Will & Should Win: The Social Network
Who Should've Been Nominated: Rabbit Hole and Shutter Island

Original Screenplay
Nominees: Another Year, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech
Will Win: The King's Speech
Should Win: The Kids Are All Right
Should've Been Nominated: Blue Valentine

Nomination Count (not including Foreign Language, Doc and Short categories):
The King's Speech - 7 statues
The Social Network - 3 statues
Inception - 2 statues
True Grit - 2 statues
127 Hours - 1 statue
Black Swan - 1 statue
The Fighter - 1 statue
Toy Story 3 - 1 statue
The Wolfman - 1 statue

Oscar Predictions

I haven't been much of a blogger lately, but with the Oscars this Sunday I couldn't let them go by without my (likely incredibly wrong) predictions. With that, here we go. (Excluding races like animated short and documentary feature, since I've seen hardly any of the nominated films.)

Best Picture
Nominees: Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air
Will Win: The Hurt Locker seems destined to become the lowest-grossing Best Picture winner ever. Avatar will win the most awards, but The Hurt Locker will come away with the one that matters. I can't see the Academy going for Avatar, not without screenplay or acting nods.
Should Win: Up. Two months ago, in my "Best of 2009" post, I named Up my favorite flick. So for consistencies sake, I'm sticking with my unpopular choice.

Best Director
Nominees: James Cameron, Avatar; Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker; Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds; Lee Daniels, Precious; Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Will & Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow has swept all the precursor awards and Oscar night should be no different. She created, without question, the year's most intense film.

Best Actor
Nominees: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart; George Clooney, Up in the Air; Colin Firth, A Single Man; Morgan Freeman, Invictus; Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Will Win: Jeff Bridges will take home this year's "Lifetime Achievement Oscar." It doesn't hurt that his boozy performance is pretty dang good.
Should Win: Colin Firth's career-making performance in A Single Man was everything an Oscar-winning performance should be.

Best Actress
Nominees: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side; Helen Mirren, The Last Station; Carey Mulligan, An Education; Gabourey Sidibe, Precious; Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Will Win: "Sandy" Bullock has everything going for her. She has the precursor awards, the "paid her dues" factor, and everyone in Hollywood loves her. Hopefully a win will lead to her making better movies. Oscar winners don't star in All About Steve, Sandra. Take note.
Should Win: Gabourey Sidibe. Two months ago I said Meryl Streep. However, if I were voting I'd go with Gabourey Sidibe and her heart-breaking turn in Precious.

Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Matt Damon, Invictus; Woody Harrelson, The Messenger; Christopher Plummer, The Last Station; Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones; Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Will & Should Win: Christoph Waltz is a virtual lock to take home the golden statue for his deliciously evil portrayal of a fictional Nazi colonel.

Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Penelope Cruz, Nine; Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air; Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart; Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air; Mo'Nique, Precious
Will & Should Win: Mo'Nique's tour-de-force performance in Precious is in a completely different league than the rest of the nominees.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: An Education, In the Loop, District 9, Precious, Up in the Air
Will & Should Win: Up in the Air contained the year's smartest and wittiest dialogue. It should take this in a cakewalk.

Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, The Messenger, A Serious Man, Up
Will Win: Inglourious Basterds. Just how Adapted Screenplay will be Up in the Air's big consolation prize, the Original Screenplay award will likely be runner-up prize for Tarantino's "Holocaust reinterpretation."
Should Win: Up. Again, many will disagree, but I'd give the award to Up for delivering the year's most affecting storytelling.

Best Art Direction
Nominees: Avatar, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, Nine, Sherlock Holmes, The Young Victoria
Will & Should Win: Avatar succeeded largely on artistic vision, so the film should be the frontrunner here.

Best Cinematography
Nominees: Avatar, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, The White Ribbon
Will & Should Win: Avatar was 2009's most beautifully shot film. Again, it should win this one fairly easily.

Best Costume Design
Nominees: Bright Star, Coco Before Chanel, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, Nine, The Young Victoria
Will & Should Win: The Young Victoria. The Academy loves a period piece, and the costumes in The Young Victoria were impeccably "Victorian."

Best Film Editing
Nominees: Avatar, District 9, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious
Will Win: The Hurt Locker. Kathryn's Bigelow's film is highly-regarded in many circles, and that love should carry over into an editing win.
Should Win: Avatar. Before nominations, I would've gone with Up in the Air, but it stunningly was left off the list. However, he final action scene in Avatar is reason enough to bestow James Cameron's epic with Best Editing.

Best Makeup
Nominees: Il Divo, Star Trek, The Young Victoria
Will & Should Win: Star Trek. The film with the truly the best makeup job (District 9) isn't even nominated, so Star Trek wins by default. It did have a green woman...

Best Original Score
Nominees: Avatar, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Hurt Locker, Sherlock Holmes, Up
Will & Should Win: Up. Nearly the first ten minutes of Up contain no dialogue. Michael Giacchino's score should receive the award for carrying the film that long, not to mention they're the most moving ten minutes of the entire picture.

Best Original Song
Nominees: "The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart; "Almost There," Princess and the Frog; "Down in New Orleans," Princess and the Frog, "Take it All ," Nine; "Loin de Paname," Paris 36
Will & Should Win: "The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart. No song was more integral or more powerfully used in a storyline than "The Weary Kind" in Crazy Heart.

Best Sound Editing
Nominees: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Star Trek, Up
Will Win: Avatar. When you spend $500 million on a film, there's a reason it will sweep the majority of the Oscar tech awards.
Should Win: Star Trek. The use of sound in Star Trek blew me away, but it's being overshadowed by the "Biggest Film of All Time."

Best Sound Mixing
Nominees: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Star Trek, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Will Win: Avatar. See above.
Should Win: Star Trek. Again, see above.

Visual Effects
Nominees: Avatar, District 9, Star Trek
Will & Should Win: Avatar. Easiest prediction by far.

Animated Feature Film
Nominees: Coraline, Fantastic Mr. Fox, Princess & the Frog, The Secret of Kells, Up
Will & Should Win: Up. It's nominated for Best Picture, and it's my favorite picture (regardless of medium) for the entire year, so it's is the easy choice.

Predicted Awards Tally: Avatar - 6 , The Hurt Locker - 3 , Crazy Heart - 2, Inglourious Basterds - 2, Up - 2, Precious - 1, Star Trek - 1, Up in the Air - 1, The Young Victoria - 1

If I Were an Academy: 2009 Edition

It's that time of year again: Oscar nomination time. Tomorrow the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences will announce the 2010 Oscar nominees, and as always, I am stoked. Unlike many critics, I think 2009 was a fantastic year for film. Better than most years in recent memory. It was a year that contained crowd-pleasing comedies (The Hangover, Julie & Julia), animated films with multi-generational appeal (Up, 9, Fantastic Mr. Fox), gut-wrenching dramas (The Hurt Locker, Precious, A Single Man), and, oh yeah, what will soon be the highest grossing film of all-time (Avatar). With that, what follows is my "ballot" if I were an Academy member, as well as my 2010 Oscar predictions. (And as a note, I've seen almost everything worth seeing, but not quite.)

Top Ten / Best Picture
1. Up. Without question, Pixar's best and most moving film. The film's opening 15 minutes are some of the best ever.
2. A Single Man. The best "gay movie" I've seen. Yes, better than Brokeback Mountain. Tom Ford's directorial debut is beautifully shot, incredibly acted, and utterly moving.
3. Precious. This wake-up call for all of America features two dynamite performances from Mo'Nique and newcomer Gabourey Sibide.
4. Avatar. The story isn't the most original, but the groundbreaking visuals are an absolute spectacle, and worth seeing again, and again, and again.
5. The Hurt Locker. A Single Man may be one of the best "gay" movies ever made, and The Hurt Locker may be one of the best war films ever made. Kathryn Bigelow's detailed direction makes The Hurt Locker the definition of a nail-biter.
6. Up in the Air. The movie of the moment. Jason Reitman's third film is the perfect film to describe the state of America in 2009.
7. Where the Wild Things Are. Maurice Sendak's beloved short story becomes an even better film that brings out the child in all of us.
8. (500) Days of Summer. The year's best romantic comedy, and it isn't even a feel-good love story.
9. Inglourious Basterds. Tarantino rewrites history and it couldn't be more fun. As with Up, the film's opening sequence is absolute brilliance.
10. District 9. The rare sci-fi flick that's both intelligent and entertaining.

What Will Actually Be Nominated: An Education, Avatar, District 9, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Invictus, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air

Best Director:
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Tom Ford, A Single Man
James Cameron, Avatar
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Pete Docter, Up

Who Will Actually Be Nominated: Bigelow, Cameron, Lee Daniels (Precious), Reitman, Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)

Best Actor
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Max Records, Where the Wild Things Are
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, (500) Days of Summer
George Clooney, Up in the Air

Who Will Actually Be Nominated: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart), Clooney, Firth, Morgan Freeman (Invictus), Renner

Best Actress
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Gabourey Sibide, Precious
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria

Who Will Actually Be Nominated: Blunt, Bullock, Mulligan, Sibide, Streep (We agree! Go figure.)

Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Peter Calpadi, In the Loop
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Zach Galfanakis, The Hangover
Stanley Tucci, Julie & Julia

Who Will Actually Be Nominated: Matt Damon (Invictus), Woody Harrelson (The Messenger), Alfred Molina (An Education), Waltz, Tucci (The Lovely Bones)

Best Supporting Actress
Mo'Nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air

Who Will Actually Be Nominated: Farmiga, Kendrick, Melanie Laurent (Inglourious Basterds), Mo'Nique, Moore

Original Screenplay
Up
(500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The Hangover

What Will Actually Be Nominated: A Serious Man, (500) Days of Summer, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Up

Adapted Screenplay
Up in the Air
A Single Man
Where the Wild Things Are
Precious
In the Loop

What Will Actually Be Nominated: An Education, District 9, Fantastic Mr. Fox, Precious, Up in the Air

2009's Best (and Worst) of the Rest
11. An Education
12. Star Trek
13. Julie & Julia
14. The Hangover
15. In the Loop
16. Fantastic Mr. Fox
17. Zombieland
18. Adventureland
19. Food Inc.
20. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
21. Paranormal Activity
22. I Love You, Man
23. The Proposal
24. 9
25. Sunshine Cleaning
26. The Blind Side
27. Earth
28. The Road
29. The Princess & the Frog
30. Invictus
31. Duplicity
32. The Time Traveler's Wife
33. Coraline
34. The Invention of Lying
35. The Young Victoria
36. The Informant!
37. Bruno
38. Surrogates
39. Taken
40. X-Men Origins: Wolverine
41. Law Abiding Citizen
42. G.I. Joe: The Rise of the Cobra
43. He's Just Not That Into You
44. 2012
45. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
46. The Men Who Stare At Goats

If I Were an Academy...

As I attempt a new foray into the blogosphere, I couldn't think of a better first post than my annual "If I Were an Academy." Overall 2008 was a weak year for film, but with the Oscars this Sunday here are my thoughts on who will win, who should win, and who should've been nominated in all of the major categories.

Best Picture
Nominees:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Who should & will win: An incredible film about fate, hope, and love -- Slumdog Millionaire should take home the trophy. It has won every precursor award imaginable, so it'd be a HUGE upset (bigger than Crash v. Brokeback Mountain) if any other film wins.

Who should have been nominated: (tie) Revolutionary Road and The Dark Knight. Road's brilliance, much like Closer's a few years ago, was completely underestimated because it was too "depressing." Knight, on the other hand, is the best comic book film ever made -- it should have been recognized.

Best Director
Nominees:
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Who should & will win: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire. He made the best film of the year, it's as simple as that. Plus, Slumdog has too much momentum for anyone to surpass Boyle.

Who should have been nominated: Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight. He made a film that will be talked about for decades. His snub is almost unforgivable.

Best Actor
Nominees:
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Who should win: Sean Penn, Milk. He's often called one of our generation's greatest living actors. However he often plays dark and brooding, but his characterization of Harvey Milk is joyful, inspiring, and commanding.

Who will win: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler. There's always a surprise at the Oscars and I think it will be here. Comeback stories are hard to top and Rourke's is remarkable. His performance is physical, gritty, and truly moving.

Who should have been nominated: Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road. He gave his most emotive performance ever. Why he can be nominated for Blood Diamond and not for Revolutionary Road is beyond me.

Best Actress
Nominees:
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Who should win: Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road. Oh wait, she's nominated for the wrong film. As a result, the greatest living actress of our time, Meryl Streep should take home her third statue for Doubt.

Who will win: Kate Winslet, The Reader. Her work is great here -- it's just not as superb as what she accomplished in Revolutionary Road.

Who should have been nominated: Of course Kate should have been nominated for Road. But the other "Great Cate," this time Blanchett, should have been nominated for her underrated work in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

Best Supporting Actor
Nominees
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Who should & will win: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight. This isn't even a competition.

Who should have been nominated: Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire. It was the best film of the year. Why not throw it an acting nomination?

Best Supporting Actress
Nominees
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Who should & will win: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona. She steals every scene she's in and gives the rest of the cast a lesson in acting.

Who should have been nominated: Rosemarie Dewitt, Rachel Getting Married. In a role far more complex than Anne Hathaway's, Dewitt grounds the film.

Best Original Screenplay
Nominees
Frozen River, written by Courtney Hunt
Happy-Go-Lucky, written by Mike Leigh
In Bruges, written by Martin McDonagh
Milk, written by Dustin Lance Black
WALL-E, screenplay by Andrew Stanton & Jim Reardon, original story by Andrew Stanton and Pete Docter

Who should & will win: Wall-E. A film as good as Wall-E with as little dialogue must have an awesome screenplay.

Who should have been nominated: Vicky Cristina Barcelona. Woody Allen's best film since Match Point.

Jason's Top 10 of 2008
1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. The Dark Knight
3. Milk
4. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5. Revolutionary Road
6. The Wrestler
7. Doubt
8. The Reader
9. Iron Man
10. Wall-E